How to read this
Ensembles run the same model many times with slightly different starting weather. The color shows the share of those runs that form a new tropical depression or stronger within 186 miles (300 km) of each spot: 40% means 4 in 10 runs did.
A run counts once its storm holds at least 29 mph (25 kt) winds for 12 hours in the tropics or subtropics; NOAA’s tracker also requires a warm core. Storms that already exist are left out. The two ensembles find storms differently, and both miss some and invent others, so treat this as a heads-up. The official word is NHC’s outlook, shown as dashed outlines.